100000 SENSEX TARGET BY 2050 : )

12 MARCH 2009

CURRENTLY  SENSEX AT 8500
APPROX EPS OF 1000
THEREFORE PE = 8.5

ON JUST 5% GROWTH P.A IN NEXT 10 YRS I.E BY 2019 EPS WILL BECOME 2000 APPROX SO SENSEX ON PE OF 10 WILL BE 20000

ON JUST 5% GROWTH P.A IN NEXT 20 YRS I.E BY 2029 EPS WILL BECOME 4157 APPROX SO SENSEX ON PE OF 10 WILL BE 41570

ON JUST 5% GROWTH P.A IN NEXT 30 YRS I.E BY 2039 EPS WILL BECOME 7109 APPROX SO SENSEX ON PE OF 10 WILL BE 71090

ON JUST 5% GROWTH P.A IN NEXT 40 YRS I.E BY 2049 EPS WILL BECOME 11579 APPROX SO SENSEX ON PE OF 10 WILL BE 115790

Someone of age  25 years of as of now , by the year 2049 he/she will be 65 years of age and investing Rs. 8500 in sensex stocks (proportionately) now , will give him/her Rs 115790 approx in 2049 : ) i.e 13.6 times return in 40 years : )

 

Notes : The above calculations have been done on various assumtions like 5 % average annual growth which despite being very conservative, may not come out to be true. Also  i am very poor in maths so do your own calculations….. i think approx target for sensex would be 100000 by 2050 : )

 

Disclosures : The above analysis is based on various research reports and my personal views, which may not turn out to be true, so take risk on your own account. My family and I may have any positions in the above-discussed instruments.

 

HAVE A BLISSFUL LIFE! : )

Enjoy…..

Regards,

From: Vishal - a  pure soul like You.

An Intra-day Saga

An Intra-day Saga

 

                              —————   Kamala Balachandran
 

The day opened on a perky note. The voltage was strong and the power held out till my work with the blender was done. I was in an upbeat mood and the obvious choice for breakfast was a bull’s eye. The U-turn occurred around 7.30. News came from a neighbour that our common maid had declared sudden bankruptcy of health. It came as a total shock, as just the previous evening she had looked fine and taken a month’s salary in advance.

The sudden meltdown had a negative impact all around. I grunted as one started to wash the vessels. My husband echoed the sentiment with a growl about a missing button. Reacting to our cue, the boys went back to hibernating under their sheets. The bull’s eye burned on the pan. It now looked like a menacing animal with a jaundiced eye. I covered up the dark surface by infusing it with a thick layer of ketchup. My foul temper held up until everyone had left home.

Crossing this psychological benchmark brought back a sense of normalcy and my blood pressure stayed normal for a brief period. A vendor had a cart full of what looked like good tomatoes from afar. A stout lady from across the road was making a big buy. That brought me, the small investor, out of my home. I rallied around the cart with my bag and managed a bargain price for my purchase. The victory spiked my mood and brought on a sense of exaggerated exuberance. But barely an hour later, another cart, also laden with tomatoes, came up in view. The price was 20 per cent less and that plunged my sentiments to the other extreme.

Apparently, some farmers had just dumped huge stocks into the market, causing the prices to crash. The loaded lady convinced me to look at the macro picture and book gains when the tide was low. I followed her advice and ended up with a fridge full of assets in red and my self-image at an all-day low. In the evening, my mood slipped further when my sons came in with a bad report card. I felt so depleted by the end of the day that one started to fear for one’s health. I still ate dinner with relish and slept restfully, though. My last thought for the day was that since my fundamentals were strong, my body could certainly weather another ride on the domestic roller coaster.

 

From: Vishal - a  pure soul like You.

http://capitalmarketandspirituality.blogspot.com/

THIS TIME IT’S DIFFERENT

The market is made up of only two types of investors: passive and active. Passive ones believe in the `efficient markets hypothesis’; so everything currently knowable about a company is already incorporated into the stock price. Believers in active management say that the market is inefficient. But passive investors continue to outperform active investors.

To have a good investment experience all you need are three things: First, a belief in the capitalist system – that providers of capital must be rewarded with expected returns commensurate with the perceived risks. Second, have the foresight and knowledge to build a diversified portfolio. Third, have the discipline to stay the course by regularly rebalancing your portfolio.

Unless it is for entertainment value, turn off CNBC (or at least hit the mute button), cancel your subscriptions to financial trade publications, and don’t visit Internet chat boards that tout great funds, great stocks, or new and interesting investment strategies. Instead of reading Money magazine, you can read a good book. The market has already done work for you. It is highly unlikely that your efforts will add value.

When the world looks darkest and prices are most distressed is just when future returns have been the greatest for those with the discipline to avoid the noise of the market and stay the course. When the world looks brightest (and it appears to be the safest time to invest) and investors are typically chasing great returns is when future returns have turned out to be the poorest.

It seems that weather forecasters have wrongly borne the brunt of criticism on their inability to make accurate forecasts. William Sherden studied the predictive ability of investment experts and also of six other forecasting professions — meteorology, technology assessment, demography, futurology, organisational planning, and economics. He concluded that while none of the experts were very expert, the folks we often make jokes about — weathermen — actually had the best predictive powers.

Our education system has failed investors, so most are ignorant of the lessons that history provides. This leaves them far too susceptible to the emotions of greed and envy. Investors would also be well served if they simply remember that the four most dangerous words in the English language are THIS TIME IT’S DIFFERENT

Buy GSFC.

I found GSFC (Gujarat State Fertilizers and Chemicals ) more interisting than any other fertilizer stock, based on pure valuations and opportunities. I found GSFC at current levels of RS. 145 can easily become double(even if chambal stays at current levels) whereas chambal at current levels of RS 60 looks expensive relative to other fertilizer stocks and at the most it can climb back to its high of Rs 90, but if it happens GSFC can even give 200% returns by then as per my undersatndings. 

  

Disclosures: The above analysis is based on various research reports and my personal views, which may not turn out to be true, so take risk on your own account. My family and I may have any positions in the above-discussed instruments.

 

From: Vishal - a  pure soul like u

http://capitalmarketandspirituality.blogspot.com/

 

Buy Tata Steel, target Rs. 1500- Rs 1800.

Tisco after buying corus has become a giant (the world’s sixth-largest steelmaker in terms of sales) as per its latest consilidated result (On Thursday 26 June 2008, the company reported 195.64% jump in consolidated net profit to Rs 12349.98 crore on 415.04% growth in total income to Rs 132110.09 crore in the year ended March 2008 over the year ended March 2007. The results are non-comparable due to merger Corus Group with Tata Steel in FY 2008.) At current price of Rs. 730 its a great value buy , as per my calculations its sure target is Rs 1500 to Rs.1800 sooner or later.

Analysis for monday, week ahead and till the year 2017.

Main nifty/4958 has proved its intermediate uptrend twice(having broken 4917 & 4970) as per technical theory of higher highs and higher lows.The current uptrend would come to end if nifty breaks 4628 on the downside.However the longer term trend is still down,for entering into longer term uptrend nifty needs to break 5368 & 5545 on the upside.200 day ema and sma may also pose as a resistance at 5016 and 5034 levels respectively.Oflate foreign markets especially Us, uk and europe are showing very bullish signals, giving bullish cues for our market.But asian markets are not showing much strength and Shanghai especially is becoming very bearish so we need to be cautious for these bearish cues.On thursday as per O.i movement Nifty did not show fresh longs instead showed cutting of shorts at higher levels which shows nifty lack strength at higher levels.Among Heavyweight stocks infy did show good long built up on thursday therfore may continue its upside on monday.And, Sbi added o.i on the short side therefore it may trade on the negative side on monday.Fiis figures were very positive on thursday which is a bullish sign.Nifty fut/4961 R at 4990 & 5031 then 5157. S at 4955 & 4925 then 4780.Remember the longer term fundamentals of the market is good enough to take nifty any time back to 6350 levels.On the basis of just 10% annual growth in corporate earnings for the next 10 years would take  nifty to the levels of 12060 in the year 2017.

Nifty/4778

US markets closed very weak on Friday which may put pressure on our market on Tuesday.But, before that we need to check all the foreign market’s movement on monday because all other markets except ours are open on monday.The movement of Asian market’s opening on tuesday also need to be ckecked for more cues.Nifty/4778 is currently in  downtrend with consequetive lower highs and lower lows. The trend would be reversed up if immediate top of 4917 is broken on the upside then the level of 4971 need to be crossed for more uptrend. On the downside the S of 4628 if breaks then it confirms the downtrend again. AS per fibonacchi levels below 4628 nifty can easily retrace to 4468.5.Friday’s open interest movement shows nifty is not showing fresh longs instead showing short covering at higher levels which shows nifty lacks strength at higher levels and therefore may fall on tuesday.Most of the heavyweight stocks  shows lack of strength at higher levels and therfore looks little bearish.Infosys results may come  whatever but technically it shows big shorts built up on Friday so its very bearish as per o.i movement but all depends on the guidance it gives on tuesday.Nifty fut/4772 S at 4751, 4724, 4676 then 4582. R at 4825, 4873, 4892, 4919 & 5013.

Main nifty/4647 and nifty fut/4653

Main nifty/4647 and nifty fut/4653: Market looks weak as per the fresh short seen in nifty on friday.The trend of nifty is already down with lower highs and lower lows.AS per fibbonacchi levels below 4628 nifty is set to touch its last intermedaite low of 4468.nifty’s closing on friday is well below its weekly trend level of 4741.In most of the front line stocks no significant long or short position is being built therefore market may remain rangebound.Fiis sold 1506 cr on friday.Among global markets Shanghai is the weekest as per the fall from the top(44% fall) while strange but true Dow is the strongest with just 12% fall. We have fallen 27% from the top so fundamentally there is big upside for our market but its too difficult to time the market.For monday, future nifty/4653 S at 4607 then 4492 then 4380. R at 4700 & 4746 then 4900.WAtch out for foreign markets on monday morning for more cues.

Nifty/4704 major trendline support is very close if its not breached then there is a fair chance of nifty bouncing back from current levels to great hights.

Nifty/4704 major trendline support is very close if its not breached then there is a fair chance of nifty bouncing back from current levels to great hights.

check out!

nifty/5302.9 is fundamentaly strong enough to reach the 6350 level again on the upside but not beyond that in the short term.Technically also its showing strength of late having crossed the 200 dma and closing above it 4 two consecutive days. The immediate target 4 nifty is 5545 level which is also the resistance level, so watch out. Tisco and sail looks very strong technically . Whereas ril, sbi and infy showing weakness for monday’s trade.